dice-simulator.commands — org.clojars.shchipts/dice-simulator 1.0.1

Procedures for DICE-like simulation model

cdr-emissions clj

(cdr-emissions cdr-pars ts)

Returns parameters and values corresponding to time points ts on the CDR emissions curves (GtCO2) represented by collection of logistic parameters (K midpoint dt). A single CDR emissions curve linearly increases from 0 until 2020, and follows as generalized logistic curve with carrying capacity K which reaches K/2 at midpoint and has the length dt of the time interval needed to grow from 5% of K to 95% of K. CDR emissions are introduced linearly from 2015 through 2020 (with extrapolation to logistic curve value in 2020) to remove inconsistent initial rate of growth

economic-growth clj

(economic-growth net-emissions-ffi-pars
                 cdr-pars
                 temperature-curves
                 damage-function
                 cost-function
                 ssp
                 ts)

Returns SSP economic curves for all feasible combinations of economy-climate pathways and CDR emissions pathways with assumed damages and mitigation costs. All combinations of economy-climate pathways (net-emissions-ffi and temperature curves) and CDR emissions pathways should not surpass the upper limiting case of SSP baseline gross emissions and couple with non-negative gross GDP, total investment and consumption series. A single net-emissions-ffi curve is represented by id and parameters (y0 y_ x1 K midpoint-offset dt) (see net-emissions-ffi for details); a single CDR emissions curve is represented by id and collection of logistic parameters (K midpoint dt). Returns curve values for net FFI emissions (GtCO2), CDR (GtCO2), gross GDP (trillion 2010 USD), damages (trillion 2010 USD), abatement costs (trillion 2010 USD), capital stock per capita (thousands 2010 USD per year), net GDP per capita (thousands 2010 USD per year) and consumption (trillion 2010 USD).

Supported damage functions: :howard-sterner2017 (Howard & Sterner 2017; Hansel et al. 2020), :burke2015 (Burke et al. 2015; Glanemann et al. 2020) For :burke2015, damages start at the value estimated with :howard-sterner2017

Supported cost functions: :dice2013 (DICE2013), :dice2016 (DICE2016), :su2017 (Su et al. 2017)

[1] Howard, P., & Sterner, T. (2017). Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics, 68 [2] Hansel, M., Drupp, M., Johansson, D., Nesje, F., Azar, C, Freeman, M., Groom, B., & Sterner, T. (2020). Climate Economics Support for the UN Climate Targets. Nature Climate Change, 10 [3] Burke, M., Hsiang, S., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global Non-linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production. Nature, 527: 235-239. doi:10.1038/nature15725 [4] Glanemann, N., Willner, S., & Levermann, A. (2020). Paris Climate Agreement Passes the Cost-benefit Test. Nature Communications, 11: 110. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13961-1 [5] DICE2013 www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/homepage/DICE2013R_100413_vanilla.gms [6] DICE2016 www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/homepage/DICE2016R-091916ap.gms [7] Su, X., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Tanaka, K., Kato, E., Shiogama, X., Masui, T, & Emori, S. (2017). Emission Pathways to Achieve 2.0C and 1.5C Climate Targets. Earth's Future, 5: 592–604. DOI:10.1002/2016EF000492

net-emissions-ffi clj

(net-emissions-ffi y0 y_s x1s logistic-pars ts)

Returns parameters and values corresponding to time points ts on the net FFI emissions curves in SSP scenarios (GtCO2) represented by a map of all ordered pairs (y0 y_ x1 K midpoint-offset dt), where y_ is in y_s, x1 is in x1s and (K, midpoint-offset, dt) is in logistic-pars. All curves should not exceed the lower limiting case of minimum gross FFI emissions in deep mitigation pathways and maximum capacity in massive CDR deployment (Kriegler et al. 2018), should not surpass the upper limiting case of SSP baseline, and cumulative net amount of CO2 (FFI and AFOLU) realised to the atmosphere should not exceed remaining emissions quota. AFOLU values are constructed based on SSP land use emissions using linear interpolation. Remaining emissions quota, measured in GtCO2, is taken from Friedlingstein et al. (2014) for 50% probability of global-mean warming below 3 °C.

A single net emissions curve starts from point with coordinates (2015, y0), linearly increases until time point x1 (with extrapolation to point with coordinates (2030, y_)), and follows as generalized logistic curve with carrying capacity K which reaches K/2 at midpoint and has the length dt of the time interval needed to de-grow from 5% of K to 95% of K. Net emissions phase linearly from x1 through x1 + 5 to remove inconsistent initial rate of degrowth.

[1] [SSP Database] https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/ [2] Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Fujimori, S., Popp, A., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., & van Vuuren, D. (2018). Pathways Limiting Warming To 1.5°C: A Tale Of Turning Around In No Time?. Philosophical Transactions A, 376: 20160457 [3] Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R., Rogelj, J., Peters, G., Canadell, J., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D., & Le Quere, C. (2014). Persistent Growth of CO2 Emissions and Implications for Reaching Climate Targets. Nature Geoscience, Advanced Online Publication

net-emissions-land-use clj

(net-emissions-land-use net-ffi-emissions-pars ssp ts)

Returns SSP CO2 AFOLU curves (GtCO2) corresponding to time points ts and net FFI emissions curves in SSP scenarios. A single net-ffi-emissions curve is represented by id and parameters (y0 y_ x1 K midpoint-offset dt) (see net-emissions-ffi for details). AFOLU values are constructed based on SSP land use emissions scenario using linear interpolation.

[1] [SSP Database] https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/